Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112024 241001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  23.0  22.0  26.7  24.1  23.0  20.2  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  26.0  25.0  21.0  16.0  15.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   148.0 120.0 130.0 120.0  93.0  94.0  84.0  83.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.1%       18.6%       13.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        6.2%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        6.0%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        6.0%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       20.9%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%       12.2%       11.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        7.5%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       13.2%       23.5%       18.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 EP112024 241001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  23.0  22.0  26.7  24.1  23.0  20.2  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%