Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112024 241002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  21.6  24.3  21.6  19.1  20.9  20.9  20.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  25.0  22.0  20.0  10.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  92.0 106.0 101.0 102.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  81.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.1%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       14.7%       10.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.7%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.6%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.6%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       21.6%       14.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.4%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h       11.3%       13.0%       12.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        7.7%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h       13.4%       22.6%       18.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 EP112024 241002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  21.6  24.3  21.6  19.1  20.9  20.9  20.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  81.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%