Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112024 241002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  26.5  25.4  21.8  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  22.0  18.0  15.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  97.0 101.0 116.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        8.3%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       10.9%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        8.7%        8.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        3.9%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h       15.5%       16.7%       16.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 EP112024 241002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  26.5  25.4  21.8  21.3  21.3  21.3  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%