Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112024 241002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     96.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  37.2  32.8  31.5  32.5  23.6  20.9  20.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 134.0  97.0  75.0  54.0  76.0  52.0  52.0  F VF  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        6.4%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        6.3%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        4.0%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%       11.1%        8.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 EP112024 241002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     96.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  37.2  32.8  31.5  32.5  23.6  20.9  20.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%