Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  20.3  22.2  21.0  17.4  19.2  25.6  37.1  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  33.0  39.0  18.0  15.0  14.0   7.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.3  92.0  87.3  85.1  78.6  74.4  64.8  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  18.0   2.0  17.0   5.0  66.0  52.0  32.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -14.0 -11.0  -7.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  10.0 VF VF  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.8%       49.5%       58.2%
 25kt / 24h       58.4%       72.2%       65.3%
 30kt / 24h       57.2%       72.2%       64.7%
 35kt / 24h       56.8%       72.2%       64.5%
 40kt / 24h       56.8%       70.6%       63.7%
 45kt / 36h       32.7%       50.0%       41.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       34.8%       17.4%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%       21.2%       15.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%       13.1%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.6%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 EP122024 241023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  20.3  22.2  21.0  17.4  19.2  25.6  37.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -14.0 -11.0  -7.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  10.0 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%