Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122024 241023 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 111.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 24.4 22.7 21.1 14.4 21.1 28.6 42.1 N N N N F N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 38.0 17.0 14.0 14.0 11.0 5.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 82.0 77.3 75.1 72.9 68.6 62.4 53.0 44.3 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 -12.0 14.0 -37.0 25.0 50.0 48.0 60.0 U U U VU U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 57.0 58.0 60.0 59.0 60.0 62.0 60.0 N U U N U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -13.0 -7.0 -5.0 2.0 5.0 6.0 19.0 VF VF F F N N N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 65.0% 33.3% 49.1% 25kt / 24h 48.0% 47.5% 47.7% 30kt / 24h 48.0% 45.8% 46.9% 35kt / 24h 48.0% 45.8% 46.9% 40kt / 24h 48.0% 45.0% 46.5% 45kt / 36h 32.8% 30.2% 31.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 17.4% 8.7% 55kt / 48h 5.8% 8.3% 7.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.12 EP122024 241023 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 111.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 24.4 22.7 21.1 14.4 21.1 28.6 42.1 N N N N U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 57.0 58.0 60.0 59.0 60.0 62.0 60.0 N F F N F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -13.0 -7.0 -5.0 2.0 5.0 6.0 19.0 VU VU U U N N N VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%