Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122024 241023 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 113.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 69.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.7 23.0 19.9 15.9 18.5 26.0 36.8 46.1 N N N F N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 16.0 13.0 15.0 13.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 52.3 50.1 47.9 43.6 39.4 29.8 21.0 4.4 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 -11.0 -13.0 20.0 64.0 27.0 72.0 56.0 VU U U U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 60.0 61.0 58.0 60.0 61.0 57.0 U U N N U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -7.0 -5.0 -1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 24.0 F F F N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 46.0% 16.1% 31.1% 25kt / 24h 18.9% 20.0% 19.5% 30kt / 24h 18.9% 17.0% 18.0% 35kt / 24h 18.9% 17.0% 18.0% 40kt / 24h 18.9% 15.4% 17.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.00 EP122024 241023 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 113.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.7 23.0 19.9 15.9 18.5 26.0 36.8 46.1 N N N U N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 60.0 61.0 58.0 60.0 61.0 57.0 F F N N F N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -7.0 -5.0 -1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 24.0 U U U N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6%