Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122024 241023 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 114.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 45.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 21.4 18.4 14.5 22.1 31.1 46.0 45.3 N N F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.0 11.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 25.1 25.1 22.9 16.5 12.4 3.0 -13.5 -20.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -34.0 -15.0 -4.0 42.0 76.0 79.0 50.0 U VU U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 62.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 61.0 56.0 U N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -8.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 21.0 21.0 F F N N N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.9% 0.0% 11.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.92 EP122024 241023 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 114.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 45.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 21.4 18.4 14.5 22.1 31.1 46.0 45.3 N N N U N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 62.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 61.0 56.0 F N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -8.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 21.0 21.0 U U N N N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.1% 1.1%