Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122024 241024 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.20 116.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 76.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 15.6 14.7 15.8 23.6 36.5 47.6 53.2 N F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 17.9 13.6 11.5 7.4 -0.2 -10.7 -27.0 -40.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -29.0 -9.0 22.0 12.0 102.0 84.0 82.0 U VU U U U F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 59.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 57.0 51.0 N N U N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 11.0 22.0 25.0 F N N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.72 EP122024 241024 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.20 116.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 15.6 14.7 15.8 23.6 36.5 47.6 53.2 N U U U N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 59.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 57.0 51.0 N N F N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 11.0 22.0 25.0 U N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9%