Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122024 241024 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 118.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 14.8 17.8 21.5 30.5 48.5 50.1 60.0 F F F N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 14.0 14.0 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 18.6 14.4 12.4 12.4 -4.0 -13.5 -29.5 -40.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 -8.0 17.0 25.0 40.0 92.0 67.0 70.0 U U U U N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 58.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 60.0 56.0 49.0 N U U U N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 22.0 28.0 21.0 N N N N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 EP122024 241024 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 118.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 14.8 17.8 21.5 30.5 48.5 50.1 60.0 U U N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 58.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 60.0 56.0 49.0 N F F F N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 22.0 28.0 21.0 N N N N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.9% 2.0%