Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  14.6  18.1  23.8  37.7  49.4  55.3  58.9  F  F  F  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  11.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.4  12.4  12.4   4.8  -4.0 -22.0 -35.2 -40.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  17.0  41.0  51.0  82.0  67.0  58.0  37.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  51.0  41.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  11.0  30.0  23.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 EP122024 241024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.