Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122024 241024 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 121.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 17.2 21.4 27.4 48.5 48.8 60.4 61.6 F F N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 11.0 7.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 2.4 2.4 -5.2 -7.0 -23.5 -39.5 -50.3 -55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 7.0 26.0 35.0 92.0 82.0 62.0 59.0 U U U N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 59.0 61.0 59.0 59.0 56.0 49.0 36.0 U U N U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 1.0 5.0 23.0 34.0 29.0 14.0 N N N N VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.26 EP122024 241024 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 121.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140.