Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  20.6  27.4  36.0  49.3  51.6  59.2  61.5  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   8.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          2.4  -5.2 -14.0 -14.0 -32.0 -46.2 -55.9 -55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  35.0  39.0  58.0  73.0  64.0  28.0  12.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  43.0  35.0  U  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  30.0  32.0  17.0   4.0  N  N  N  N VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.96

 EP122024 241025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.