Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241025 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  27.1  34.4  46.1  50.1  59.0  60.5  67.3  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.8  -4.0 -12.0 -20.6 -36.2 -41.3 -45.9 -45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  42.0  70.0  80.0  62.0  72.0  70.0 -16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  47.0  39.0  29.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   3.0  16.0  34.0  31.0  15.0   0.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 EP122024 241025 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.