Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  35.9  46.1  49.8  53.3  58.9  62.2  63.1  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         11.0   3.0   1.5  -5.6 -21.2 -30.9 -34.2 -33.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  78.0  78.0  62.0  71.0  43.0   9.0 -30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  45.0  36.0  29.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0  19.0  23.0  35.0  20.0   7.0   1.0  N  N VU VU VU VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.16

 EP122024 241025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.