Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  46.8  49.5  50.1  59.9  62.2  62.1  53.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         13.0   4.4  -3.3 -11.2 -16.3 -24.2 -23.4 -19.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 111.0  73.0  30.0  37.0  24.0 -33.0 -27.0  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  47.0  39.0  29.0  24.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  23.0  31.0  40.0  24.0  18.0   0.0   1.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.36

 EP122024 241025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.