Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.3  50.1  51.6  55.2  63.1  62.1  60.3  60.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         21.5  13.0   5.5  -6.3 -10.9 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  55.0  66.0  58.0  22.0  12.0  -6.0  -6.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  41.0  31.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  35.0  37.0  27.0  20.0   1.0   4.0   4.0 VU VU VU VU VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.10

 EP122024 241026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.