Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122024 241026 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.10 127.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.8 48.4 53.2 60.5 60.1 61.9 59.0 59.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 16.7 8.8 8.8 3.7 -0.9 0.0 0.9 0.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 66.0 75.0 89.0 36.0 15.0 -18.0 -4.0 -4.0 N N F N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 51.0 45.0 34.0 26.0 22.0 22.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 35.0 39.0 30.0 20.0 13.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 VU VU VU VU U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.40 EP122024 241026 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.10 127.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.