Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.3  57.3  63.8  64.2  60.4  62.2  62.2  62.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         23.8  18.7  18.7  14.1  14.1  15.9  15.9  15.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  56.0  33.0  27.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  30.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.0  25.0  21.0  18.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.82

 EP122024 241026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.