Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        59.3  65.0  63.0  60.2  59.5  55.1  55.1  55.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.7  28.7  24.1  24.1  25.0  29.7  29.7  29.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  19.0  35.0  16.0  -7.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  45.0  41.0  34.0  25.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  20.0  17.0  14.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.50

 EP122024 241026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.