Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122024 241027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.6  62.9  57.6  56.2  57.4  57.4  57.4  57.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.7  34.1  34.1  35.0  39.7  39.7  39.7  39.7  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  29.0  21.0  31.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  41.0  34.0  30.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  20.0  16.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0 VU VU  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.32

 EP122024 241027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.