Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122024 241027 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.50 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 57.1 56.0 56.6 54.5 54.5 54.5 54.5 54.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 39.1 39.1 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 0.0 -13.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 33.0 29.0 25.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 VU N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.12 EP122024 241027 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.50 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.