Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132024 241101 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.20 128.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 18.8 21.7 24.4 24.0 25.6 29.5 29.4 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -53.0 -49.0 -33.0 31.0 11.0 -14.0 -14.0 U VU VU VU N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 60.0 58.0 55.0 54.0 49.0 48.0 44.0 U N U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.9% 2.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 9.6% 4.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.5% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 2.6% 1.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.40 EP132024 241101 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.20 128.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.