Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132024 241102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    128.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  23.0  24.8  22.9  21.5  24.8  33.1  33.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   8.0   9.0   8.0  12.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 108.5 108.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -25.0 -32.0 -12.0  -9.0  19.0  24.0  24.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.6%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%       12.7%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 EP132024 241102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    128.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.