Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132024 241102 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.10 129.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 51.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.10 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 23.0 23.4 25.0 24.1 31.2 33.3 33.4 N N N N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 13.0 14.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.5 105.5 105.5 105.5 105.5 103.5 103.5 103.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -28.0 -46.0 -22.0 -8.0 -11.0 42.0 -2.0 7.0 VU VU VU U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 54.0 53.0 49.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.3% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.8% 2.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 8.0% 4.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.7% 1.4% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 EP132024 241102 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.10 129.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.