Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132024 241102 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.30 129.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 24.6 25.8 24.2 26.5 34.3 33.9 35.4 N N N N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 8.0 9.0 8.0 9.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -30.0 -23.0 -7.0 3.0 -19.0 -15.0 7.0 22.0 VU VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 47.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 2.4% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 1.1% 8.1% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 3.7% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 3.3% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 3.3% 1.9% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 12.2% 6.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.0% 2.5% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 EP132024 241102 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.30 129.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.