Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132024 241102 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.30 130.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.1 24.6 25.4 24.6 31.0 34.0 35.4 34.0 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 10.0 14.0 13.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 0.0 -9.0 -7.0 16.0 -21.0 0.0 1.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 50.0 47.0 45.0 46.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.2% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.8% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 EP132024 241102 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.30 130.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.