Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132024 241103 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 130.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 27.6 23.9 26.3 33.4 35.4 38.7 38.7 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 11.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 5.0 0.0 -2.0 -20.0 -1.0 23.0 23.0 U U U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 53.0 49.0 50.0 50.0 46.0 45.0 45.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.4% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 EP132024 241103 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 130.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.