Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142024 241107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    105.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  25.8  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  22.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   4.0  57.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.2%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        9.0%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        3.6%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        5.4%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 EP142024 241107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    105.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  25.8  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%