Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142024 241107 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    104.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.3  31.3  31.3  31.3  31.3  31.3  31.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        2.7%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 EP142024 241107 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    104.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.3  31.3  31.3  31.3  31.3  31.3  31.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%