Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012024 240525 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  22.6  22.7  19.1  24.4  29.8  29.7  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  67.0  60.0  41.0  54.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  94.4  50.0  29.6  23.1  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  67.0  61.0  39.0   6.0  20.0   5.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   1.0   8.0  23.0  21.0  40.0  29.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        4.7%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       19.2%       34.7%       26.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       17.1%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%       17.1%       13.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       17.1%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       32.2%       22.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.1%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%        6.7%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.7%        3.3%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.40

 IO012024 240525 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80     89.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  22.6  22.7  19.1  24.4  29.8  29.7  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   1.0   8.0  23.0  21.0  40.0  29.0  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%