Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012024 240525 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80     89.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  22.6  17.0  20.3  25.5  28.4  27.4  25.5  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  65.0  57.0  18.0  54.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  94.4  51.8  34.6  36.4  F  F  F  F  N  U VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  68.0  59.0  30.0  12.0  24.0  27.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  68.0  62.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   3.0  13.0  21.0  24.0  22.0  31.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        4.4%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       15.8%       35.5%       25.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.9%       19.0%       13.5%
 35kt / 24h        7.0%       18.3%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       18.3%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       31.9%       20.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.1%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        3.5%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        3.1%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.34

 IO012024 240525 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80     89.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  22.6  17.0  20.3  25.5  28.4  27.4  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  68.0  62.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   3.0  13.0  21.0  24.0  22.0  31.0  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%