Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012024 240526 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     89.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    163.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  19.0  16.5  18.2  30.2  25.9  25.9  25.9  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  64.0   5.0  62.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  69.4  41.6  41.6  41.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  53.0  31.0  24.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   5.0  14.0  19.0  18.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        8.5%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h       24.1%       49.5%       36.8%
 30kt / 24h       16.6%       34.6%       25.6%
 35kt / 24h       16.6%       34.6%       25.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       32.9%       16.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       31.7%       19.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.6%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        2.9%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        2.8%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.70

 IO012024 240526 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     89.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    163.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  19.0  16.5  18.2  30.2  25.9  25.9  25.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   5.0  14.0  19.0  18.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  N  N  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%