Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012024 240526 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40     88.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  16.8  17.4  19.6  23.6  22.9  24.9  23.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  66.0  61.0  54.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0  76.0  37.8  23.4  25.4  37.8  N  N  N  U  U VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  -9.0  -2.0  40.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  12.0  13.0  16.0  15.0  12.0  24.0  21.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.6%       42.8%       43.2%
 25kt / 24h       65.3%       78.0%       71.7%
 30kt / 24h       56.4%       73.1%       64.8%
 35kt / 24h       56.4%       73.1%       64.8%
 40kt / 24h       12.5%       70.3%       41.4%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%       57.2%       38.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       42.4%       21.2%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%        3.4%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 IO012024 240526 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40     88.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  16.8  17.4  19.6  23.6  22.9  24.9  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  12.0  13.0  16.0  15.0  12.0  24.0  21.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%