Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012024 240526 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     88.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    164.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  19.0  19.4  27.4  25.8  27.9  22.5  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  62.0  54.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0  88.5  59.4  28.4  25.4  22.1  22.1  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  44.0  33.0  -1.0  35.0  34.0  26.0  26.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  20.0  19.0  15.0  29.0  21.0  10.0  10.0  U VU VU  U VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.6%       13.9%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       25.8%       19.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%       15.5%       13.7%
 35kt / 24h       11.8%       15.2%       13.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       14.4%        7.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       10.4%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 IO012024 240526 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     88.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    164.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  19.0  19.4  27.4  25.8  27.9  22.5  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  20.0  19.0  15.0  29.0  21.0  10.0  10.0  F VF VF  F VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%