Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012024 240526 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70     88.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    159.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  22.9  27.8  31.3  30.9  24.7  20.8  20.8  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  55.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0  78.0  50.4  32.8  14.0  12.3  13.4  13.4  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  53.0  40.0  46.0  60.0  15.0  17.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  18.0  17.0  23.0  40.0  39.0  13.0  13.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        7.2%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        6.7%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        3.5%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        3.2%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.84

 IO012024 240526 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70     88.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.