Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012024 240527 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     88.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    172.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  32.8  30.7  31.2  29.0  23.3  22.6  22.6  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.2  55.4  37.8  24.7  14.1  19.0  20.2  20.2  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  26.0  48.0  46.0  19.0  11.0   6.0   6.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  16.0  22.0  40.0  31.0  24.0   8.0   8.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.16

 IO012024 240527 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     88.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.