Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012024 240527 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     89.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  31.4  29.0  23.7  28.9  23.4  23.4  23.4  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.5  38.3  29.7  24.0  27.7  25.8  25.8  25.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  62.0   8.0  39.0  26.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  20.0  20.0  25.0  15.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.40

 IO012024 240527 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     89.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.