Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012024 240527 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70     89.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    161.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  20.1  21.9  19.9  23.4  23.4  23.4  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.9  35.4  30.2  27.8  27.8  27.8  27.8  27.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  21.0  29.0  22.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  10.0  16.0  17.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.40

 IO012024 240527 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70     89.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.