Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022024 240830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     68.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  30.9  27.1  26.3  26.7  22.5  25.4  25.4  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  13.0  13.0  11.0  23.0  19.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 127.0 122.3 122.3 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   7.0   5.0  -1.0  -6.0  -9.0  -7.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.1%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.5%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        3.3%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 IO022024 240830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     68.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  30.9  27.1  26.3  26.7  22.5  25.4  25.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%