Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022024 240830 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.40 67.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.6 30.7 27.3 24.0 22.9 26.0 30.3 33.4 U U N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 15.0 17.0 14.0 20.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 120.1 109.4 84.6 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -14.0 -2.0 -33.0 -45.0 -28.0 -18.0 -2.0 0.0 U U VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 51.0 51.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 -8.0 -13.0 5.0 N N N N F F VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 5.5% 3.0% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 2.0% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.8% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 5.7% 3.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 2.3% 1.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 IO022024 240830 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.40 67.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.6 30.7 27.3 24.0 22.9 26.0 30.3 33.4 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 51.0 51.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 -8.0 -13.0 5.0 N N N N U U VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%