Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022024 240830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  23.6  22.5  23.6  19.2  27.7  30.5  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  16.0  16.0  14.0  19.0  15.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 127.0 124.6 120.1 109.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  -3.0   0.0  14.0  -3.0  -7.0 -11.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.7%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        7.2%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 IO022024 240830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  23.6  22.5  23.6  19.2  27.7  30.5  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%