Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022024 240830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     66.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  25.5  25.1  27.3  27.4  32.6  32.6  32.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  14.0  12.0  19.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 124.3 122.0 108.6  96.6  96.6  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -41.0 -28.0   0.0 -11.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0 -11.0  -5.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.6%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.1%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.0%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 IO022024 240830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     66.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  25.5  25.1  27.3  27.4  32.6  32.6  32.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  F  F  F VF  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0 -11.0  -5.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%