Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022024 240831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.4  26.9  24.9  25.8  25.0  30.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  12.0  19.0  19.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 117.3 115.1 117.3 117.3 102.4  84.3  65.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -47.0 -47.0  -8.0   0.0  13.0  -9.0  13.0   8.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  49.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 IO022024 240831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.4  26.9  24.9  25.8  25.0  30.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  49.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%