Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022024 240831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30     64.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  26.3  28.5  29.1  28.2  27.1  27.1  27.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  13.0  15.0   9.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 108.6 106.5 102.4  96.6  87.7  87.7  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0 -12.0 -12.0  -3.0  -2.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -7.0  -7.0  -4.0  -5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 IO022024 240831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30     64.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  26.3  28.5  29.1  28.2  27.1  27.1  27.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -7.0  -7.0  -4.0  -5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%