Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022024 240831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30     64.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  25.1  24.1  30.1  32.3  40.8  45.6  54.4  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  18.0  13.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 105.7 101.5  99.4  91.6  79.3  71.5  64.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  -6.0   0.0   8.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  51.0  54.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0  11.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.3%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 IO022024 240831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30     64.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  25.1  24.1  30.1  32.3  40.8  45.6  54.4  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  51.0  54.0  F  F  F VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0  11.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%