Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022024 240831 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 63.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 34.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.5 25.9 32.1 32.5 35.1 45.6 50.8 56.9 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 10.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.5 99.4 93.5 89.8 82.7 73.0 54.3 45.7 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 7.0 6.0 -3.0 1.0 10.0 -10.0 -6.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 49.0 52.0 55.0 58.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 3.0 0.0 8.0 5.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.4% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 IO022024 240831 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 63.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.