Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022024 240901 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 61.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.9 27.9 29.3 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.5 96.2 89.3 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 -1.0 12.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -3.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.90 IO022024 240901 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 61.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.