Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022024 240902 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 61.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 49.8 49.8 53.5 59.2 55.6 55.1 51.5 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 8.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.1 93.0 91.5 87.2 76.7 67.7 66.7 70.9 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 22.0 26.0 -21.0 3.0 -8.0 -12.0 -32.0 U U U VU U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 57.0 56.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 61.0 56.0 U U U N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 8.0 7.0 14.0 18.0 8.0 17.0 7.0 N U N U VU U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.02 IO022024 240902 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 61.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.