Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022024 240902 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 61.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.3 48.5 42.9 45.7 46.9 48.9 46.5 44.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 93.0 91.5 90.0 88.6 77.9 68.8 69.8 74.3 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 30.0 -18.0 -21.0 -25.0 -19.0 -24.0 -17.0 U N U VU VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 53.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 49.0 46.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 10.0 6.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.92 IO022024 240902 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 61.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.